Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by September 30?

Detalhes da resolução

This market is about whether normal commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be restored by September 30, 2026, without official restrictions, blockades, or significant disruptions. Event context: The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global oil and LNG supplies. Any disruptions there immediately affect Brent prices, tanker insurance, and energy security in Asia and Europe. YES -- The market resolves to YES if, by the deadline, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz occurs without official blockades, prohibitions, military zones, or confirmed mass downtime of commercial vessels. NO -- The market resolves to NO if, on September 30, there remains an official blockade, prohibition of passage, active military restrictions, or confirmed significant disruptions to commercial shipping. Resolution sources: IMO, UKMTO, U.S. Central Command, Reuters, Bloomberg, MarineTraffic / Lloyd’s List. Resolution details: “Normal” is defined as the absence of officially confirmed restrictions that hinder the regular passage of oil tankers, LNG carriers, and large commercial vessels through the strait. Increased insurance rates or isolated delays alone do not constitute a NO.

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