ECB rate likely to stay unchanged in July, markets price in 93% chance

European markets are projecting a 93 % probability that the European Central Bank will hold the deposit facility rate at 2.25 % during its July 22–23 policy meeting.

Nonetheless, ING economists have cautioned that while the odds of a July hike are fading, the ECB is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, leaving the door open for further tightening as early as September if inflation remains elevated.

This outlook sets up compelling betting scenarios: prediction markets may offer opportunities to wager on both a July hold and a possible September rate increase.