Will 'United Russia' maintain a constitutional majority in the State Duma?

Resolution Details

A market on whether 'United Russia' will secure at least two-thirds of the seats in the State Duma of the Russian Federation following the elections on September 18–20, 2026. End date: After the official results are published by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. YES -- The market resolves to YES if the Central Election Commission confirms that 'United Russia' has received 300 or more out of 450 mandates. NO -- The market resolves to NO if 'United Russia' receives 299 mandates or fewer. Source of resolution: Official data from the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation: cikrf.ru / izbirkom.ru. Resolution details: Only mandates officially distributed based on the results of the 2026 State Duma elections are considered. Subsequent transfers of deputies, by-elections, or changes in factional affiliation are not taken into account.

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