Will regular gasoline supplies from Kazakhstan to Russia begin before September 1, 2026?

Resolution Details

This market is about whether Kazakhstan will start regular industrial supplies of gasoline to Russia before September 1, 2026. Event context: Amid fuel shortages in Russia, the market is monitoring whether Russia can meet part of the demand through imports from neighboring countries. YES -- The market resolves to YES if the official start of regular commercial gasoline supplies from Kazakhstan to Russia is confirmed before the deadline. NO -- The market resolves to NO if there are no supplies, if they remain one-time, humanitarian, or test shipments, or if they only involve oil/diesel and not gasoline. Resolution sources: Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Energy of Russia, governments of Kazakhstan/Russia, KazMunayGas, official customs statistics. Resolution details: Only large-scale gasoline supplies under commercial contracts will be counted. A one-time shipment without confirmation of regularity will not be counted.

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