Will China introduce new export restrictions on rare earths against the US or Japan by the end of 2026?

Resolution Details

This market is about whether China will introduce new export restrictions on rare earth elements or related materials/technologies aimed at the US or Japan. YES -- The market resolves to YES if China officially introduces new export restrictions, licensing, bans, or additional control measures for rare earths targeting the US or Japan. NO -- The market resolves to NO if there are no new measures, if the measures affect other goods unrelated to rare earths, or if there are only statements without official implementation. Resolution source: Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, State Council of the People's Republic of China. Resolution details: Only new measures announced after the market launch and in effect by the end of 2026 will be counted. General export rules will be counted if they explicitly restrict rare earth supplies to the US or Japan.

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