Will a ceasefire for civilian vessels in the Black Sea be announced by August 31?

Resolution Details

This market will resolve as Yes if an official agreement, moratorium, or ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to stop attacks on civilian/commercial vessels in the Black Sea is announced by August 31, 2026. Event Context: Ukraine, Turkey, and Western mediators are discussing the safety of civilian shipping in the Black Sea amid attacks on ports, tankers, and trade routes. End Date: August 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC. YES: Russia and Ukraine will officially confirm a mutual cessation of attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, either directly or through a mediator. NO: There will only be proposals, negotiations, unilateral statements, or no agreement will be announced by the deadline. Resolution Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Turkey, UN, Reuters, AP, Guardian. Resolution Details: Only an officially announced bilateral or multilateral agreement/moratorium will count. General calls for de-escalation do not count.

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