The Bank of Russia sees inflation at 6–7% by the end of 2026
On August 5, the Bank of Russia published a summary of the July discussion on the key interest rate. The regulator confirmed that it expects annual inflation in 2026 to be in the range of 6–7%. The main new factor contributing to this is fuel prices, which the Central Bank estimates will contribute a maximum of about 1.5 percentage points to inflation over the year.
At the same time, the regulator estimates that stable price growth remains around 4–5%, and any further rate cuts will be approached cautiously. The current key interest rate stands at 14%, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
This news raises questions for the markets: "Will inflation in Russia exceed 7% by the end of 2026?" and "Will the Bank of Russia lower the key rate below 14% on September 11, 2026?" So far, the Central Bank's baseline forecast is right at the upper limit of the first question, while regarding the rate, the regulator is signaling a more gradual easing of policy.
