Will the US and China extend the tariff truce after July 24, 2026?

Resolution Details

This market is about whether the US and China will agree to extend the tariff pause/reduced tariff regime after July 24, 2026. Event context: The US-China tariff dispute remains one of the main risks for global markets, the yuan, commodities, and technology supply chains. YES -- The market resolves to YES if the US and China officially confirm the extension of the tariff truce for the period after July 24, 2026. NO -- The market resolves to NO if the extension is not confirmed by both parties, tariffs revert/increase, or if there are only negotiations without an official decision. Resolution source: White House, USTR, Ministry of Commerce of China / MOFCOM. Resolution details: A joint statement or separate official statements from both parties confirming the extension of the tariff pause, deferrals, or reduced tariff regime will be counted.

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