Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Resolution Details

This market is about whether Russia and Ukraine will officially reach a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026. Only formal bilateral agreements are considered, not humanitarian pauses or unilateral statements. Deadline: December 31, 2026, 23:59 Kyiv time. YES: Russia and Ukraine will officially announce or sign a ceasefire agreement by the deadline. NO: There will be no official bilateral ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026. Resolution source: Office of the President of Ukraine, Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine/Russia, UN, OSCE, or an official mediator. Details: Unilateral ceasefires, local ceasefires, prisoner exchanges, humanitarian pauses, or unconfirmed media reports do not count as YES. The agreement can be temporary or indefinite, but must be confirmed by both parties.

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